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Can we predict election results by looking at real estate prices?

No polls, no interviews, no political analysis. An analyst in Istanbul-TURKEY (Mr. Hakan AYTEKIN) claims that he can explain election results with a simple model  that he constructedvby using real estate prices of neighbourhoods in Istanbul.

Here's the outcome of his model for the upcoming local elections in Istanbul on March 30,2014: He claims that ruling party (AKP) won't lose much strength as commonly expected before the elections, despite the serial corruption scandals they involved.

According to his model: Ruling AKP will gain 22 districts (instead 26 in 2009), whereas opposition CHP will gain 17 (instead 13 in 2009) in Istanbul. AKP will also win Istanbul Gretaer Municipality Election this year as in 2009. So, expect not much change in politics in Turkey.

Mr. Aytekin ( www.hakanaytekin.net ) adds, in western world, professional polling agencies’ margin of error is +/- 2 or 3 percent with 95% likelihood. That means, if a hundred similar polls were conducted, we would expect that in 95 of them, predicted result will lie within +/- 2-3% of the actual result. However he would conclude that his model is succesful if the results are within +/- 5% margin of error since his model is simpler and much cheaper than the proffesional polls.

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