Obama won't work miracles

The alliance between centrists and the right wing, in which the ultra-orthodox parties were left out in the cold, shows both the reactions of middle class Israelis against the socio-economic privileges of the ultra-orthodox community as well as conservative and right-wing voters’ concerns given the ambiguous security environment. Some analysts saw the Israeli elections as strong evidence of a turning inwards politically with a focus on domestic issues. Although this assessment might be accurate for American politics under the Obama administration to some extent, the Israeli case is more than being “simply domestic politics.” In order to understand the essence of Israeli threat perception and the national security burden of the new government, we should look at Israeli strategic culture. First, the Israeli military strategic posture is designed to promote a formidable deterrence that would keep the nation safe by increasing the cost of any aggression. Second, due to demographic constraints, Israeli defense strategy is built on an effective mobilization system that requires precise intelligence that anticipates incoming threats. Therefore, any drastic shifts and increasing uncertainty in the regional security environment would make the Israeli strategic community uncomfortable. In fact, many leading Israeli strategists have even refused to call the mass turbulence in the Arab world the Arab Spring because they saw the uncertain change in the decades-long status quo as the harbinger of a “nasty winter.”

Moreover, lessons learned from Operation Pillar of Defense (OPD) are also critical. For the first time, Gazan groups like Hamas and Islamic Jihad have Fajr-5 and M-75 rockets with a range of about 75 kilometers that can cover the Israeli heartland. Although the Iron Dome system performed well by intercepting some 85 percent of the engaged threats, the rocket threat from Gaza succeeded in disrupting daily life in Israel, and the Israeli Defense Force (IDF) did not conduct a ground incursion, unlike with Operation Cast Lead in 2008. In other words, the OPD was not the best of news for Israel’s deterrence. Furthermore, the new government will have to face a worsening threat landscape in the Golan Heights and also in the Sinai. In addition, the coalition may soon have to deal with key challenges such as a Hamas takeover in the West Bank, a serious threat to the Jordanian monarchy, the transfer of the Syrian WMD arsenal to Hezbollah and even another intifada. This overall picture makes the new security cabinet a crucial factor.

Being an inner-circle of key figures, the security cabinet (SC) serves as a decision-making body under diplomatic and military crises. In the new SC, which will include only seven ministers -- about just half the number of the former SC -- we have only two centrists; Minister of Justice and Hatnuah head Tzipi Livni, and Finance Minister and Yesh Atid head Yair Lapid. In other words, Netanyahu will have three close allies in this important forum, and also Naftali Bennett, who leads the right-wing Jewish Home. Besides, far-right Avigdor Lieberman will be joining as foreign minister, if he is acquitted in an ongoing trial. Moreover, this time Netanyahu enjoys the presence of a Likud defense minister, Moshe Ya’alon, instead of the center-left Ehud Barak. Clearly, the hawkish character of the new SC would focus on Israel’s right to self-defense, and provocation by any adversaries may cause more escalation in the future.